The Coin Flip Game of Sideboarding

Posted Jan 31, 2025

In collectible card games, when a control deck plays against a normal midrange deck, the control deck benefits by having few to no minion threats, meaning that their opponent's removal cards are typically dead cards. They have no targets to use them on. This is effectively giving the midrange deck fewer cards, which hurts their chances of winning relative to their opponent.

Let's illustrate this with an example game of Magic: the Gathering, with a control deck playing against a normal deck. While the control deck might have a few creatures in their sideboard, perhaps a Dream Trawler, their main win condition in their main deck might just be a planeswalker or a manland creature like Hall of Storm Giants. The midrange deck might have around 8 removal cards in their main deck, and with the control deck having few creatures, these removal cards generally help the midrange deck win before the control deck can stabilize and then dominate the game. In fact, if they wait long enough and have enough dominance on the board, they can get enough mana to even counter whatever removal spell the control deck tries to play in response to a Hall of Storm Giants.

In best of three matchups, after game 1, the midrange deck faces a question: should they sideboard out their removal cards? If they do, they risk the control deck bringing in their creatures, and then the removal cards are dead cards. If they don't, they risk drawing removal cards that don't help them advance their game plan of attacking and winning before the control deck can stabilize.

This is what I call the coin flip game of sideboarding. The midrange deck has to guess whether the control deck will sideboard in their creatures, and the control deck has to guess whether the midrange deck will sideboard out their removal cards. If the midrange deck guesses correctly, they have a better chance of winning. In fact, the optimal strategy according to game theory is a random strategy where you side in creature some percent of the time, and not side in creature some other percent of the time. This way, you're unpredictable. It's like a coin flip. In fact, I've seen players literally flip a coin or roll dice as part of their sideboarding strategy.

This same dynamic applies in other matchups in Magic: the Gathering, such as graveyard strategies. For example, an Izzet Phoenix deck uses 4 copies of Arclight Phoenix, and 4 copies of Treasure Cruise. These are powerful cards if you have your graveyard intact. However, if the opponent sides in graveyard removal like Rest in Peace, Leyline of the Void, or Soul-Guide Lantern, then these graveyard payoff cards are effectively dead cards. You can't get the benefits of Arclight Phoenix or Treasure Cruise if your graveyard is exiled due to Rest in Peace! The Izzet Phoenix deck has to guess whether the opponent will sideboard in graveyard removal, and the opponent has to guess whether the Izzet Phoenix deck will sideboard out their Arclight Phoenixes and Treasure Cruises.

While I've used Magic: the Gathering as an example, this dynamic applies to other collectible card games as well.

I don't particularly like this dynamic in games. I don't like coin flips determining the winner. I want to win because I outplayed my opponent, not because I guessed correctly on a coin flip. Yes, there is always some luck involved in a card game, but I want Orbs CCG to be a highly skill-based game.

Orbs CCG's energy system helps to mitigate this random dynamic. In Orbs CCG, there is no sideboard, however some percent of your deck can effectively function as sideboard cards, that is, cards that are great in certain matchups or situations, but not useful in others. Since all cards can be used as energy, you can play these cards when you need them, and energize them when you don't. I estimate about 25% of your deck could be these types of cards. This means the typical deck would want about 75% of their deck to help advance their main strategy, but 25% of their deck can be cards that they're willing to energize often, but still play when they're particularly useful for certain situations.

This means there's no coin flip dynamic of sideboarding, which is a good thing. However, you might be wondering: isn't there still a coin flip dynamic of drawing the right cards at the right time? Yes, there is, but that is somewhat inherent to the nature of card games. The point is to reduce the coin flip dynamics so that skill matters relatively more. Furthermore, there is the skill of knowing which cards to energize, and reading the signals your opponent is sending based on which cards they energize. This is a skill that doesn't exist in other card games, and is a way to reward expert play.

What this means is you should use your cards in a dynamic way depending on what your opponent energizes. For example, suppose you're the control deck, and you have a minion threat in hand. If you energize the minion card, that is signalling to your opponent that they could energize their removal card, since it's less likely to be useful. However, if you don't energize the minion card, then your opponent might not energize their removal card, holding it back just in case you play a minion. In fact, you might be happy to play the minion as a threat if you've seen your opponent energize a number of their removal cards already, since you now know they're less likely to have removal available. This is a more dynamic and interactive way of playing the game, rather than a coin flip game during sideboarding. It rewards skill and reading your opponent rather than guessing correctly on a coin flip.

Overall, I think the energy system in Orbs CCG helps to increase the skill-based nature of the game in important ways beyond just eliminating "mana flood" and "mana screw." The energy system helps to eliminate the coin flip game of sideboarding, because your sideboard is effectively a small part of your deck already that you can use dynamically based on what your opponent is doing.